Last week, wildfires left a trail of destruction across the island of Maui, claiming at least 96 lives and causing damage worth over US$5.52 billion. This has raised urgent questions on the preparedness of scientists and Hawaii’s preventive measures against future disasters of this nature.
Contrarily to the perception of Hawaii being a paradise of verdant tropical vegetation, wildfires are not uncommon for the Pacific archipelago. Each island possesses a drier leeward side, protected from wind and popular with tourists due to the abundant sunshine. The region of Lahaina, in particular—where the deadliest inferno erupted on August 8—is known for its hot and dry conditions, as its Hawaiian name meaning ‘cruel sun’ implies.
In addition to this, the pattern of wildfires in Hawaii has gravitated towards a worrying trend of escalation in both frequency and severity. “We’ve observed a rather consistent rise, and in recent decades, an exponential surge in the size of the areas in Hawaii affected by the annual wildfires,” informs climatologist Abby Frazier from Clark University, based in Worcester, Massachusetts.
According to a report published by Maui County in 2021, there is a rising incidence of Wildfires, Brush and Forest fires. This increase is highlighted as a growing threat to citizens, properties and sacred areas.
Main Causes of Wildfires
Wildfires typically require three main components: a fuel source, dry conditions and an igniter. In Hawaii, grass is the prevalent fuel – a direct result of the state’s economic shift from ranching, sugar and pineapple farming to a tourism-based model. This leads to former agricultural lands being overrun by grass. Once a fire starts in the dry grasslands, it can easily spread to forested areas. Post-fire, these areas frequently transform into grasslands, perpetuating a continual cycle of fire risk.
According to Frazier’s research on century-long rainfall patterns in Hawaiian islands, droughts that persist and intensify have been responsible for the dryness necessary for wildfires. The increasing temperatures due to climate change result in faster drying of vegetation. However, it remains less certain if climate change is also driving a reduction in rainfall due to the intricacies of several significant, recurring Pacific climate conditions like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
In late 2022 through early 2023, the Pacific went through the La Niña phase of the ENSO, resulting in a wetter-than-usual season. During this period, rainfall was 90–120% of the average in Maui, subsequently leading to vigorous grass growth. By June, the region encountered an El Niño phase, typically characterized by warmer, drier weather.
During the dry season from May to October, El Nino doesn’t always result in drought in Hawaii. However, as early as May, meteorologists from the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration anticipated below-average rainfall leading to drought in Hawaii, particularly on the leeward side of Maui.
The source that ignited the recent fire on the island is still unclear. A probable cause could be sparks generated from fallen power lines or other electrical systems. What’s certain is that the strong winds from Hurricane Dora, located merely 500 miles from the shore, amplified localized fires into a rapidly spreading wildfire. As early as August 4th, the US National Weather Service indicated that a combination of Dora’s winds and drought could create severe fire-weather conditions. On August 7th, a Red Flag Warning was issued for increased fire danger in the leeward regions of all Hawaiian Islands.
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