Foreign affairs generally have little impact on the outcome of presidential elections. However, in the early phase of the 2024 U.S. presidential race, the issue of Ukraine has proven significant. President Joe Biden has promised to support Ukraine indefinitely, while ex-president Donald Trump vows to resolve the war within a single day of returning to office.
The opposing plans of the two candidates offer the most pronounced difference in foreign policy between the major parties in two decades, echoing back to when the discourse around the Iraq War was crucial in the 2004 presidential election, culminating in George W. Bush’s triumph.
The contrast between Biden and Trump regarding Ukraine, along with differing opinions within the Republican sector over the U.S. role in the war, mirrors a broader national conversation about America’s global position in the post-Iraq and Afghanistan epoch.
Biden utilizes Ukraine as an example to emphasize the importance of strong American leadership in ensuring the success of democracies over autocratic systems in the global power struggle of the 21st century. On the other hand, Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the primary candidates for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, advocate for an “America First” policy of isolationism—implying a significant reduction in the U.S.’s participation in other nations’ conflicts.
Some lesser-known GOP candidates, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, uphold more conventional conservative foreign policy perspectives. They endorse a proactive role for America as the leader of the ‘free world.’ Nevertheless, they are gradually misaligned with the party’s grassroots base. This base has notably developed a more negative sentiment towards assistance to Ukraine since the start of the conflict.
Just as Ukraine could play a significant role in the 2024 US presidential election, the results of the election might also majorly influence the outcome of the conflict in Kyiv. The elected US president will establish the ambit for the NATO alliance that backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. This, in turn, will decide the extent of Western military support that Ukraine can expect, should the conflict persist past Inauguration Day 2025.
Additionally, the election bears significant importance in defining U.S. foreign policy beyond the Ukraine issue. Biden, in particular, faces immense pressure since he has closely bound his foreign policy legacy to Ukraine’s resistance against Russia.
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